SINGAPORE(PinionNewswire) — Ninety-Day US-China Tariff Truce Through 10 November 2025 Reshapes Investor Strategies Across Global Equities, Oil Markets, Supply Chains and Currency Positioning, with Market Participants Weighing Geopolitical Risks Against Trade-Driven Growth Opportunities
ELD Asset Management assesses that the ongoing US-China tariff truce, now well into its 90-day window and set to conclude on 10 November 2025, continues to influence markets at a pivotal stage in the trading calendar. Sectors exposed to cross-border flows, from consumer electronics to industrial commodities, are operating within a defined tariff framework during the pre-Christmas period, providing a clearer horizon for allocation decisions and hedging strategies.
Jason Harrison, Senior Vice President at ELD Asset Management, commented: “This window allows investors to make calculated portfolio adjustments while keeping an eye on unresolved trade risks.”
Asian equity markets have sustained momentum, with Japanese indices reaching record levels and US technology and consumer shares advancing on improved sentiment. According to Harrison, exporters with strong pricing power and diversified supply chains may be positioned to capture benefits in this environment. The truce presents opportunities but leaves trade risk in play, prompting balanced positioning to benefit from current stability while preserving downside protection.
The timing aligns with peak holiday import demand. US retailers have been able to secure inventory at current tariff levels rather than higher rates previously signalled. Freight operators report steadier booking patterns, and modelling by industry analysts suggests global trade contraction could be limited to 0.65% for 2025, though Chinese exports to the US may still decline by 19% on an annualised basis if talks fail. Harrison noted: “Trade flow resilience during this season reduces cost pressures for importers and maintains consumer supply continuity.”
In energy markets, Brent crude traded near USD 68.77 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at USD 65.71 (ICE Futures data, 13 August 2025), influenced more by seasonal demand and inventory builds than trade policy. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects US crude output at a record 13.41 million barrels per day this year, easing in 2026, while OPEC has raised its 2026 demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day. Harrison observed: “Short-term softness in upstream margins does not diminish potential opportunities in downstream operations if freight and industrial activity rebounds.”
Geopolitical risk remains. The truce is positioned by the White House as a bridge to deeper negotiations, yet the possibility of secondary sanctions on Russian crude buyers persists. Historical patterns show equity markets losing about 1% per month during extended political tension, with emerging markets more vulnerable, reinforcing the case for liquidity reserves.
Bond markets now price a high likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Ten-year Treasury yields have eased, and credit spreads have narrowed from early August peaks. ELD Asset Management favours selective duration extension while maintaining flexibility to adjust if policy diverges from expectations.
For the remainder of this period, preferred allocations include high-quality exporters, logistics providers, integrated energy majors with resilient downstream performance, and short-to-intermediate duration credit. Elevated cash and short-dated Treasuries remain in place to guard against a breakdown in negotiations. Harrison concluded: “The pause creates tactical openings, but the lack of resolution on core disputes means assumptions of a lasting settlement would be premature.”
About ELD Asset Management
Established in 2017, ELD Asset Management Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201725839Z) provides clients with strategic investment advice informed by comprehensive macroeconomic and market analysis. The firm continuously tracks global economic developments, enabling investors to anticipate opportunities and align portfolios to long-term objectives.
Further commentary and research updates: https://www.eldglobal.com/news/
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